Rise of travel predicted

Rise of travel predicted

International departures will reach 68% of the pre-Covid-19 levels globally in 2022 and are expected to improve to 82% in 2023 and 97% in 2024, before making a full recovery by 2025 at 101% of 2019 levels, with a projected 1.5 billion international departures, says analytics company GlobalData. However, the trajectory for the recovery in international departures is not linear across regions or countries.

Hannah Free, travel and tourism analyst at GlobalData, says international travel from North America had shown improvement in 2021 as international departures grew by 15% year-on-year. The US rose to become the world’s largest outbound travel market in 2021. In 2022, outbound departures from North America are projected to reach 69% of 2019 levels, before making a full recovery by 2024, at 102% of 2019 levels, ahead of other regions.

‘International departures from European countries are expected to reach 69% of 2019 figures in 2022. As travel confidence rebuilds, the intra-European market is expected to benefit, driven by preferences for short-haul travel.

‘However, travel recovery must contend with inflation, rising costs of living, and the war in Ukraine,’ adds Free.

Asia-Pacific is expected to lag in terms of recovery. Outbound departures from the region will only reach 67% of 2019 levels in 2022, owing to the relatively slower removal of travel restrictions, and the propensity for renewed domestic restrictions during Covid-19 outbreaks.

China is not showing any signs of relaxing its strict border measures in the short-term. In 2021, international departures from China were just 2% of 2019 levels.

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